Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is experiencing increased political isolation following the electoral defeats of two of his regional allies: Honduras and St. Vincent and the Grenadines. These losses come as the Venezuelan leader grapples with heightened tensions stemming from a significant naval buildup by the United States in the Caribbean.
In Honduras, preliminary results from the elections held on November 26, 2023, signal a clear defeat for Rixi Moncada, a protégé of leftist President Xiomara Castro. Moncada has fallen to a distant third place in the presidential race, with limited prospects for victory. As the vote count proceeds, the contest appears to have narrowed to two right-leaning candidates: Salvador Nasralla and Nasry Asfura. Both have pledged to sever ties with Maduro’s government, a stance recently endorsed by former U.S. President Donald Trump.
Meanwhile, in St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, an ardent supporter of Maduro, was ousted after nearly 25 years in office. The center-right politician Godwin Friday will now lead the country, with his party securing 14 out of 15 parliamentary seats. These electoral outcomes reflect a broader trend across Latin America, where the once-prominent populist movement of Chavismo, founded by late President Hugo Chávez, is losing ground.
The political landscape in the region has shifted markedly, with countries like Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Colombia reducing their diplomatic engagement with Maduro’s Venezuela. This change is particularly evident in Colombia, where the relationship has historically been fraught due to shared challenges like drug trafficking. Under the presidency of Gustavo Petro, Colombia briefly reestablished diplomatic ties with Venezuela. However, Petro has since distanced himself from Maduro, acknowledging the Venezuelan leader’s democratic shortcomings while rejecting U.S. claims linking Maduro to drug trafficking.
Relations with Argentina have similarly soured. Under previous left-wing administrations, ties between Caracas and Buenos Aires flourished, but the election of center-right President Javier Milei in 2023 has curtailed those connections significantly. Ecuador, El Salvador, and Bolivia have also shifted away from Maduro in recent years, aligning more closely with right-leaning governments.
Despite the shifting allegiances, some nations remain in Maduro’s corner. Cuba, a long-standing ally, continues to express support for Venezuela. In late September, Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez reaffirmed Cuba’s commitment to Maduro’s government, though he sidestepped inquiries about Cuba’s potential military response to a U.S. attack. The island nation, grappling with its own economic crisis, is unlikely to provide significant military support.
Similarly, Nicaragua, led by President Daniel Ortega, has remained largely silent amid escalating tensions. Ortega has publicly condemned the U.S. military presence in the Caribbean, framing it as an attempt to seize Venezuelan oil.
As Maduro faces a dwindling circle of allies, the potential for international conflict remains uncertain. With the U.S. deploying over a dozen warships and approximately 15,000 troops in the region as part of “Operation Southern Spear,” discussions about Venezuela’s future are intensifying. Reports indicate that Trump convened a meeting at the White House to deliberate on next steps regarding Venezuela.
In response to the mounting pressure from the U.S., Maduro delivered a defiant message. He stated, “It’s been sanctions, threats, blockades, economic war, and Venezuelans did not cower. Here, as they say, everyone put on their boots and went to work.” Since succeeding Chávez in 2013, Maduro has adapted to a precarious political landscape, often employing a strategy of negotiation and resilience.
A diplomat in Caracas, speaking on the condition of anonymity, noted, “He’s preparing for a round of negotiations, so he will not give up any card in his deck unless he’s forced to.” This approach reflects Maduro’s history as a former union leader, indicating a belief that U.S. willingness for foreign intervention may be limited, particularly in light of public sentiment.
As the situation unfolds, the ramifications of regional elections and shifting alliances for Venezuela’s future remain to be seen. With an increasingly isolated Maduro, the geopolitical dynamics of Latin America are poised for further evolution.
