UPDATE: The U.S. inflation report is set to be released later today, but the ongoing government shutdown has thrown a wrench into the data collection process. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has confirmed that the October inflation figures will not be published, leaving analysts and market watchers to focus solely on the November numbers.
This unprecedented delay raises questions about the accuracy and reliability of the upcoming report. Analysts expect headline annual inflation to clock in at 3.1% for November, a slight increase from September’s 3.0%. However, with the BLS skipping October entirely, market participants are left to interpret the two-month change in inflation rather than the usual monthly updates.
The implications of this delayed report are significant. Investors and policymakers are keenly awaiting insights into consumer prices amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The absence of October data means that any shifts in inflation trends could be obscured, complicating decisions for central banking officials.
According to estimates from Bank of America (BofA), the core CPI is expected to average 0.23% month-over-month across October and November. This comes amid concerns that new health insurance data may exert downward pressure on the inflation figures. BofA projects that year-over-year headline and core CPI inflation will dip from 3.0% in September to 2.9% in November.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs anticipates core CPI to average 0.21% month-over-month, citing upward pressure from tariffs on certain goods. Analysts highlight that price changes will need to be assessed over a two-month period due to missing data, creating a less than “clean” read on inflation.
Adding to the complexity, Barclays predicts core CPI to average 0.29% month-over-month, noting that core goods prices are likely to see an uptick, particularly in used car prices which have rebounded recently. However, concerns remain that the report could be biased lower due to price collection occurring primarily during Black Friday promotions.
As the clock ticks down to the release of the November inflation report, the urgency among analysts and investors is palpable. The potential for significant economic implications hinges on these numbers, with many eyes on how consumer prices will evolve amid shifting market dynamics.
Stay tuned as we bring you the latest updates on this developing situation and its impact on the economy. The inflation report will be crucial not just for immediate market reactions but for understanding the broader economic landscape in the coming months.
