A recent poll indicates that if Republican candidate Curtis Sliwa were to withdraw from the New York City mayoral race, the contest would become highly competitive between Democratic candidate Zohran Mamdani and Independent candidate Andrew Cuomo. The survey, conducted by Gotham Polling in collaboration with the AARP, reveals that Mamdani would lead with 44.6% of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 40.7%. Notably, nearly 15% of voters aged over 50 remain undecided.
In August, support for former Governor Cuomo among older voters saw a significant increase of nine percentage points. The dynamics of the race shifted when incumbent Mayor Eric Adams announced his exit after running as an Independent, which has altered the political landscape considerably. Prior to Adams’ departure, a September poll showed Mamdani with a substantial lead over Cuomo, while Adams garnered less than 10% of the vote.
The current poll results indicate that with all three candidates still in the running, Mamdani maintains a double-digit lead over his opponents. According to the New York Post, three critical issues dominating the mayoral race include the cost of living, housing affordability, and public safety.
“The decisive factor in this race may be the older voters who haven’t yet made up their minds,” stated Stephen Graves, President of Gotham Polling and Analytics. “If the contest narrows to two leading candidates, the 50-plus electorate — by far the most reliable voting bloc — will likely determine who becomes the next mayor of New York City.”
Mamdani’s campaign has not been without controversy. He recently faced backlash on social media after posting a picture on X with Imam Siraj Wahhaj, a figure associated with the 1993 World Trade Center bombing as an “unindicted co-conspirator.” In the post, Mamdani referred to Wahhaj as “one of the nation’s foremost Muslim leaders and a pillar of the Bed-Stuy community for nearly half a century.” The bombing resulted in the deaths of six individuals, contributing to the contentious nature of the current election.
The poll was conducted from October 14-15, 2023, surveying 1,040 likely voters in New York City. It has a margin of sampling error of +/-4 percentage points and a 95% confidence level. As the election approaches, the evolving dynamics among the candidates and their campaigns will likely continue to shape voter sentiment in this crucial race.
