A significant number of Americans are increasingly anxious about the future of two essential safety-net programs: Medicare and Social Security. According to a recent survey conducted by the West Health–Gallup Center on Healthcare, approximately 40 percent of U.S. adults, or about 110 million people, doubt that these programs will still be operational in ten years. The survey gathered responses from nearly 20,000 adults across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., between June 9 and August 25, 2023.
Historical Context and Current Challenges
Social Security was established during the Great Depression and was signed into law by President Franklin D. Roosevelt on August 14, 1935. The program was designed to provide financial stability and help older Americans avoid poverty, funded through payroll taxes. Over the years, it has expanded to include disability insurance and survivor benefits, with over 73 million people currently receiving support.
Despite its extensive reach, Social Security faces significant financial challenges. The latest report from the Social Security Trustees indicates that the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI) and Disability Insurance (DI) trust funds are projected to deplete by 2034. Without legislative intervention, benefits could be cut by approximately 21 percent, relying solely on incoming payroll taxes.
Medicare is also under considerable strain. The trust fund for Medicare’s Hospital Insurance (Part A) is expected to run out by 2033. Although the program would continue to function, it would only be able to cover about 89 percent of scheduled hospital and skilled nursing care.
Widespread Anxiety Across Demographics
Concern about the sustainability of Medicare and Social Security is particularly pronounced among younger Americans. At least half of individuals under 50 years old believe that these programs are “not too” or “not at all” likely to exist in a decade. Those without health insurance and individuals relying on Medicaid express even greater levels of concern.
Political affiliation also influences perceptions of these programs’ longevity. Republicans generally show more optimism than Democrats and independents, particularly among older age groups. About 65 percent of Republicans aged 50 to 64 believe that Medicare and Social Security will still be available in ten years, rising to 75 percent among those aged 65 and older. In contrast, only 39 percent of Republicans aged 18 to 49 share this confidence. The disparity in outlook is less pronounced among Democrats and independents.
The survey highlights the critical nature of these programs to their recipients. Approximately 91 percent of Medicare beneficiaries consider the program either extremely important (62 percent) or important (29 percent) for managing their healthcare costs. Similarly, 84 percent of Social Security recipients feel the same, with 52 percent rating it as extremely important.
Given these findings, it is not surprising that around 60 percent of adults report being more concerned now than a year ago about potential changes to Medicare and Social Security. Specifically, 58 percent express heightened anxiety regarding Medicare, while 61 percent are worried about Social Security.
As discussions about the future of these vital programs continue, the implications for millions of Americans remain profound. The increasing uncertainty raises critical questions about the sustainability of the social safety net and the measures necessary to ensure its viability for future generations.
