A new digital system called **FluWarning** has been developed to monitor the cross-species transmission of avian flu, addressing concerns over potential spillover events. Created by a research team from the **Politecnico di Milano** and the **University of Milan**, this innovative tool analyzes the genetic code of flu viruses for abnormal changes that could indicate transmission from birds to other animals or humans.
The recent study, published in the journal **Science Advances**, outlines the functionality of FluWarning as part of the **SENSIBLE project** (Small-data Early warNing System for viral pathogens In puBLic hEalth). The research group comprises experts including **Anna Bernasconi**, the Principal Investigator, **Professor Stefano Ceri**, **Researcher Tommaso Alfonsi**, and **Professor Matteo Chiara** from the University of Milan.
FluWarning relies on data from **GISAID**, a global platform that shares virus sequences and associated metadata from laboratories worldwide. The system initially utilized data from the **H1N1 swine flu pandemic** in 2009, a well-documented case of virus transmission from animals to humans. More recently, it was applied to the **H5N1 bird flu**, a highly pathogenic strain that has started to affect cattle in the United States.
The core of FluWarning lies in its statistical methods designed to detect anomalies in flu virus sequences. It can identify both individual and groups of unusual sequences, issuing alerts when significant changes occur. Virologists then analyze these alerts to confirm or rule out the presence of spillover.
Bernasconi emphasizes the practical application of FluWarning: “With its simple installation and analysis customizable for specific locations and time periods, the software can be utilized by various laboratories or regional genomic surveillance institutions.” The system is operational and provides daily feedback on viral changes.
In 2024 and 2025, two H5N1 genotypes were linked to outbreaks in the United States, revealing infections in numerous dairy cattle. FluWarning successfully identified clusters of viral activity in various states, particularly **California**, where a state of emergency was declared on **December 18, 2024**, due to the risk of bird flu contamination. Notably, some alerts from FluWarning emerged prior to official reports, showcasing its proactive capabilities.
Chiara noted the system’s ability to detect specific mutations within the hemagglutinin (HA) gene, a crucial protein that influences how the virus infects host cells. By monitoring the evolution of the virus, FluWarning identified unique markers associated with the California strains.
Ceri concluded, “FluWarning represents a significant advancement in detecting viral changes that could pose risks to both animals and humans. By making this technology widely available, we aim to enhance global surveillance for this critical health issue.”
As the threat of influenza viruses continues to evolve, systems like FluWarning may prove essential in safeguarding public health and preventing future outbreaks.
For further details, refer to the study by **Tommaso Alfonsi et al.**, titled “Lightweight multiscale early warning system for influenza A spillovers,” published in **Science Advances** (2025). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.adz7312.
