UPDATE: As Black Friday approaches, U.S. retailers are bracing for a significant surge in consumer traffic, despite ongoing economic challenges. Recent reports indicate that consumer confidence has dipped, but holiday spending remains robust, setting the stage for a potentially record-breaking shopping event.
New data from The Conference Board reveals that consumer confidence fell this month due to a federal government shutdown, weak hiring, and persistent inflation. Yet, this has not deterred shoppers from gearing up for the holiday season. Retail executives report that while consumers are becoming more selective, they are eager to spend on essential occasions like the upcoming holidays, creating a so-called “halo effect.”
Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, stated, “Consumers have been saying the economy is terrible while continuing to spend for years now, so the outlook is probably better than they are telling us.” He emphasized that shoppers are increasingly sensitive to prices, yet they remain willing to splurge for significant events.
Retailers faced challenges earlier this year due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs on imported goods, leading many to absorb costs instead of passing them on to consumers. According to market research firm Circana, 40% of all general merchandise sold in September saw price increases of at least 5%. Notably, 83% of toys sold experienced similar hikes, impacting categories like toys, baby products, and sports equipment.
Despite these challenges, there is positive momentum heading into Black Friday. At the Mall of America in Bloomington, Minnesota, foot traffic has exceeded pre-pandemic levels from 2019. Jill Renslow, the mall’s chief business development and marketing officer, expressed optimism: “We’re seeing a very positive start to the holiday season. The last few Saturdays in November have been very strong.”
On the digital front, online sales have skyrocketed. From November 1 to November 23, U.S. consumers spent an impressive $79.7 billion, marking a 7.5% increase from last year and surpassing Adobe’s growth forecast of 5.3% for the season. Mastercard SpendingPulse predicts a 3.6% rise in holiday sales from November 1 through December 24, slightly lower than last year’s 4.1% increase.
Amid this uncertainty, Mastercard Chief Economist Michelle Meyer noted, “Clearly, there’s uncertainty. Clearly, consumers feel on edge. But at the moment, it doesn’t seem like it’s changing how they are showing up for this season.”
For savvy shoppers, Thanksgiving Day is poised to offer the best online discounts on sporting goods, while Black Friday will deliver the deepest cuts on TVs, toys, and appliances. Looking ahead, Cyber Monday is expected to be the prime day for apparel and computers, with discounts peaking at 25% off the manufacturer’s suggested price.
As the holiday shopping season kicks off, consumers are encouraged to stay informed about the best deals and strategies to maximize their savings. With the stakes higher than ever, retailers and shoppers alike are preparing for what could be a transformative Black Friday. Stay tuned for live updates on sales and shopping trends as the day unfolds.
