In a significant move, the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) has revived a military exercise originally conducted in 1978, known as Nifty Nugget. This decision comes as part of efforts to enhance the United States Armed Forces’ preparedness for potential conflicts in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly concerning escalating tensions surrounding Taiwan.
The original Nifty Nugget exercise aimed to simulate a scenario where the U.S. would need to mobilize all its forces globally in the event of an existential threat. Conducted over 21 days, the exercise involved approximately two dozen military commands. However, it faced significant challenges, including poor planning and logistical failures, resulting in up to half a million troops arriving late, with the exercise concluding with an estimated 400,000 U.S. casualties. The insights gained led to the establishment of the U.S. Transportation Command in 1987, but the concept of mass mobilization was largely abandoned until now.
New Study to Assess Military Readiness
Under the recent NDAA signed by President Donald Trump in early December, a provision has been included mandating a study modeled on Nifty Nugget. This study focuses on the mobilization of Reserve forces to evaluate the military’s capability in responding to high-intensity conflicts in the Indo-Pacific, specifically in scenarios involving the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
The law requires collaboration between the Secretary of Defense, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command. They must assess how quickly and effectively the military can mobilize, deploy, and sustain both active and reserve components in response to potential conflict. This requirement is particularly timely, given the growing concerns about China’s ambitions regarding Taiwan.
As part of the study, a thorough evaluation of strategic lift, sustainment, and logistics capabilities will be conducted. It will also analyze interagency coordination procedures and joint interoperability, with a special focus on cooperation with Japan, Australia, the Philippines, and Taiwan. Additionally, the military will create an inventory of civilian skills within the Reserve component, assessing capabilities such as foreign language proficiency, advanced degrees, and expertise in fields like cybersecurity.
The report from this study is expected to be submitted within two years and will include findings, recommendations, and a data analysis on the availability of reservists to reinforce active units in the initial phases of a major conflict. It will also provide insights into how many reservists might be needed for sustainment operations at home.
Implications of the Study and Historical Context
This legislative requirement follows a 2024 report from the Center for a New America Security, which evaluated the U.S. military’s ability to mobilize conscripts in the event of a major war. The report indicated that, under optimal conditions, it could take approximately seven months to mobilize 100,000 conscripts. In less favorable circumstances, such as when not all conscripts respond to draft notices, reaching this target could take as long as three-and-a-half years.
While reactivating a draft presents more complex challenges than mobilizing trained reservists, both scenarios share common obstacles, particularly regarding the updating of personnel on medical and dental requirements for deployment. The report suggested that the National Security Council should conduct full-scale mobilization exercises every two years to ensure readiness for potential conflicts.
Katherine Kuzminski, the primary author of the CNAS report, highlighted the importance of the new NDAA provision. She noted that while Nifty Nugget was criticized as a failure, its purpose was to identify gaps and issues that could arise during a crisis. Kuzminski emphasized that lawmakers are taking the possibility of major conflict in the Indo-Pacific seriously and that the new study requirement indicates a shift towards acknowledging the human cost of war.
Reflecting on her research, Kuzminski pointed out that previous war games often focused solely on logistics and equipment without addressing the manpower needs for an actual conflict. This oversight raises critical questions about potential casualty rates and the military’s readiness to respond to a significant mobilization event.
The study will also consider the influence of technology and societal changes on military mobilization, including how factors like social media may impact the willingness of reservists and conscripts to respond to mobilization orders. Kuzminski anticipates that many of the gaps identified in 1978 may resurface in the current context, underscoring the need for comprehensive assessments to enhance military readiness.
While the origins of the term Nifty Nugget remain unclear, its revival serves as a reminder of the lessons learned from past military exercises. As the U.S. prepares for potential challenges in the Indo-Pacific, the focus on mobilization and readiness underscores the importance of adapting to emerging threats in a complex global landscape.
